USD/INR Forecast: Continues to Threaten Resistance

The US dollar should strengthen if there is fear, but if we start to see the Federal Reserve indicating that it may weaken, we will see this market lower. , USD/INR rallied slightly during Wednesday’s trade, crossing the ₹82.50 level before attempting to do the same on Thursday. Right now, there seems to be a lot of resistance above, so there is an opportunity for the rupee to strengthen a bit there, which makes sense given that the Nifty 50 has attracted some inflows. This does not mean that the rupee will suddenly appreciate against the US dollar, but it does make some sense in terms of cross-border flows. Advertisement Test your technical skills now! OPEN FREE DEMO ACCOUNT 50 days EMA is close to ₹81.59. Ultimately, this is an area that I think offers some short-term support and suggests that if we bounce in this area, we may need to go higher. Alternatively, if we take the top of the breakout star from the Wednesday session, we are likely to test the ₹83 level. All of the above then opens up a much bigger long-term situation. This would make sense if interest rates remained strong, and of course the Reserve Bank of India plays an important role in this equation as it usually keeps an eye on the exchange rate. They also recently raised interest rates by 35 basis points, so now that could give the Indian currency some strength. Waiting for the Fed You also have to remember that this is a reflection of risk appetite and whether people are ready to get out of that curve. The US dollar should strengthen if there is fear, but if we start to see the Fed indicating that it may strengthen, we will see this market lower. Friday’s US CPI of could also give us a bit of a boost, but we have the Fed meeting and the middle of next week, which will also have a big impact on the dollar. and hence the value of the dollar against the rupee. For now, a short-term retreat seems to be on the cards.

Steve Walker

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