France: Stronger than expected rebound in GDP in the second quarter, of +0.5%

Growth in the French economy rebounded more sharply than expected in the second quarter, with the positive contribution of foreign trade offsetting sluggish domestic demand to lead to a 0.5% increase in the gross domestic product (GDP), according to the first results published Friday by INSEE.

After the 0.2% contraction in France’s GDP in the first quarter, economists polled by Reuters expected an average growth of 0.2% over the period.

In its latest forecast, published in mid-July, the Banque de France expected the French economy to grow by 0.25% in the second quarter, while INSEE forecast GDP growth by 0.2% over the past quarter. , in its latest economic report published at the end of June.

The growth overhang for 2022, i.e. the change in GDP if activity stagnated over the next two quarters, stood at 2.5% as of June 30.

While final domestic demand is traditionally the main driver of French growth, its contribution to GDP growth over the past quarter was nil (covering in particular a 0.2% decline in household consumption expenditure), while that of changes in business inventories, which is very volatile, turned out to be slightly positive (+0.1 point).

Alexandra Taylor

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